Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004–2025

In a new article, scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and partners from Golestan University of Medical Sciences and Tehran University of Medical Sciences (both in the Islamic Republic of Iran) examine recent trends in the major cancer types occurring in Golestan Province, an area in north-eastern Islamic Republic of Iran that is a high-risk region for upper gastrointestinal cancers, and provide short-term predictions of the future cancer burden.

The researchers obtained data on new cancer cases diagnosed in Golestan in 2004–2016 from the database of the Golestan population-based cancer registry. Using these data, they predicted that the number of new cases of cancer (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer) per year will increase by 61.3% from 2016 to 2025. Although the number of new cases of oesophageal cancer is predicted to decrease by 2025, the number of new cases of other major cancer types is predicted to increase over the decade, including cancers of the stomach, colorectum, lung, female breast, and prostate, as well as leukaemia. Changes in the population structure and in risk contributed 37.8% and 23.5%, respectively, to the overall increase in incidence.

Roshandel G, Ferlay J, Semnani S, Fazel A, Naeimi-Tabiei M, Ashaari M, et al.
Recent cancer incidence trends and short-term predictions in Golestan, Iran 2004–2025
Cancer Epidemiol, Published online 15 June 2020;
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.canep.2020.101728

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