New estimates of the number of cervical cancer cases and deaths that could be averted in low-income and lower-middle-income countries by scale-up of screening and vaccination activities

Two new studies by teams of researchers including scientists from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and the World Health Organization (WHO) quantify the long-term impact of scaling up human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening in reducing the cervical cancer incidence and mortality burden in 78 low-income and lower-middle income countries. The studies were published in The Lancet on 30 January 2020.

The authors report that meeting the targets of the WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Initiative could avert 74 million cases of cervical cancer and 62 million deaths from cervical cancer over the next century. The GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates included in the IARC Global Cancer Observatory were used as the baseline from which to calibrate the predictions.

As the incidence study, by Brisson et al., notes, population-based cancer registries are urgently needed in low-income and lower-middle-income countries, not only to improve the accuracy of the GLOBOCAN estimates but also to inform local cancer control actions, including whether the elimination targets will be met as countries scale up HPV vaccination and screening activities in line with the WHO Draft Global Strategy for the elimination of cervical cancer.

Brisson M, Kim JJ, Canfell K, Drolet M, Gingras G, Burger EA, et al.
Impact of HPV vaccination and cervical screening on cervical cancer elimination: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries
Lancet, Published online 30 January 2020;
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30068-4

Canfell K, Kim JJ, Brisson M, Keane A, Simms KT, Caruana M, et al.
Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries
Lancet, Published online 30 January 2020;
https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30157-4

Read the incidence study

Read the mortality study